For Bitcoin to become a U.S. strategic reserve, the U.S. government would need to undergo massive policy shifts and secure legislative approval—a monumentally difficult task. Until Trump’s potential election, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have maintained a conservative stance on controlled currencies. Bitcoin is decentralized, and while it’s technically possible to "manage" it (by hoarding large amounts on the national balance sheet), it remains highly volatile and unpredictable for macroeconomic and monetary policy control.

While the odds of Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset are slim, this scenario could materialize if Trump and his team (led by Elon Musk) lay the groundwork for adoption. (The "DOGE Department" wasn’t created for nothing.)

Trump is also a skilled showman who thrives on populist promises. One of his campaign slogans was a proposal to pay off the $35 trillion national debt by selling Bitcoin from the U.S. Treasury. Is that realistic? Probably not.

However, Bitcoin’s price could still surge beyond $110K in the coming years (many predict $250K). There’s no clear ceiling for Bitcoin’s price, given its fixed supply—19.7 million BTC (94% of the total cap) have already been mined, and the mining rate has slowed dramatically due to increasing algorithmic complexity.

In reality, Bitcoin could reach $200K, $500K, or even $1M over a 10-20 year horizon.

What Would This Mean for the Financial System?
There are major risks for the U.S. financial system (and a lot of them). The biggest one? Dollar devaluation.

If Bitcoin were adopted as a reserve asset, it could ultimately weaken the dollar, eroding global trust in the U.S. currency.

For the crypto market, this scenario would be extremely bullish, potentially skyrocketing Bitcoin’s price and boosting other cryptocurrencies, driving massive capital inflows and multiplying the entire market’s capitalization.

How Would Financial Institutions React?
For major funds, U.S. government adoption of Bitcoin would be a green light. Institutional investors (hedge funds, investment firms, etc.) would flood the market with demand.

Investment funds would be forced to rebalance their clients’ portfolios to include crypto. And many likely already know about this possibility—firms like BlackRock are already hoarding Bitcoin in anticipation.

Impact on the Dollar and Other Currencies
The most obvious consequence of Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset would be currency devaluation, starting with the U.S. dollar. A surge in Bitcoin demand from institutional players could crash the dollar’s value, with even worse effects for smaller economies that rely on the dollar.

Who Wins and Who Loses?
Winners:

• Miners & mining companies (Hi, Mike!)
• Investors & funds that bought Bitcoin early
• Crypto-focused firms

Losers:

• Traditional banks

Conservative investors (stocks, bonds, futures, etc.)

Final Thoughts
Mike Novogratz is a visionary dreamer, but also a shrewd businessman. He understands the scale of change that Bitcoin adoption would bring—and that such a shift would require full government backing, given its global economic implications.

But he also knows that Trump holds the leverage (a majority in the Senate and Congress) to potentially push this through.

What do you think?